Winners and Losers: a cashless society

In Sweden, cash retail transactions have fallen 80%

Digital transactions in China have risen from 4% in the past 20 years to 34% in 2017.

A cashless society provides many benefits to society

Countries spend roughly 0.5% of their GDP managing physical cash

Consumers have better tracking of their money in digital forms, more convenience, and quicker and easier access to payments

Black market transactions dealt in cash will be strapped down

But consumers who value data privacy will also lose, as governments will likely use digital transactions as data

The poor and unbanked will lose out if cash is phased out

And society may become less democratic, with more power funneling towards institutions, governments, and financial corporations who control the digital system

 

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Calculated risks

We make calculated risks every day – intuitively

How quickly can I jaywalk without getting hit by a car?

What if I run through a yellow light?

Eating spicy food

As I learn more about investing and trading, I’ve tried to apply those skills to life in terms of making calculated risks.

But not just intuitively. I love the idea of making decision matrices or weighing the options at hand.

My senior English thesis in High School was about the Paradox of Choice and how too many options in this world can put us in a state of paralysis of analysis. I found it interesting because I’ve used that knowledge to better my understanding of making – and going through with – certain decisions I make.

Of course, life offers many options. I chose Villanova over Toronto. I chose Economics over Finance. Every choice I make, I have to forsake something else due to opportunity cost.

But being too focused on opportunity cost may make your completely paralyzed and fail to actually make a decision.

And so there are two parts to being a great decision-maker: taking calculated risks (intuitively and planned), and making decisions and going through with them.

Being a great decision-maker. That is a strong skill to have.

I wish I hugged them

Today I had to say farewell to my co-workers as I leave for Hong Kong tomorrow

Because I switched departments half-way through my internship, I essentially had to say goodbye to two departments of people

Although short-lived, 3-weeks, I still got to know these people

And I’d be lying if I said I didn’t get a little sentimental

It’s the realization that people, humanity, all around the world, is beautiful

All of us, each living these lives, each pursuing individual goals, but together forming a community with other people doing their own sh*t

Hong Kong culture is not something I can say I am fully familiar with. And because I wasn’t sure of the etiquette, I didn’t get the feeling that a hug was appropriate.

But I wish I hugged them

I don’t know if I’ll ever see these people again.

But it’s the same as when I had to leave Singapore last year (where I did get to hug my co-workers before leaving)

3-weeks and I formed genuine connections. Doing this around the world makes me truly and fully love humanity.

This life is so beautiful.

Just make sure you hug the people you care about.

Add Oil, Hong Kong.

It’s actually so difficult to go your own path

Going your own path is always difficult and it always will be

Those that forge their own path are either crazy or maybe just crazy enough to succeed

But if you’re not willing to break the societal mold that we’ve fabricated, then you won’t survive on that arduous path

The path is meant for people who don’t care about what others think

I’m still trying to learn how to foster that type of mindset

Then I can truly live life on my own terms

The fear of UBI

With the rise of AI and robotics, there is a lot of fear surrounding the job market and job losses in the developed world.

In Kai-Fu Lee’s book, AI superpowers, he mentions three potential solutions to the rise of AI

  1. Retraining people
  2. Shifting people (maybe 3-4 day work weeks?)
  3. A general minimum income, or universal basic income

He notes that although a UBI may be necessary, the fear is that the winners of the AI revolution will simply use UBI as a sedative for the real problem

The real problem is that with any revolution, particularly with the respects of technology and the digital era, the winners are becoming bigger winners in the economy.

Facebook has low or no marginal cost for pumping out ads

Advanced AI will be able to do more for less

And the rich will get richer, and instead of finding a solution, governments will put a “bandaid” called UBI for those that fall behind in the revolution

Which is why education is important. Which is why action is important.

a Universal basic income, no strings or restrictions attached, may have the issue of making society complacent.

He proposes instead to instead offer a societal standard income with criteria to meet.

For example:

  1. Educators, teachers
  2. Public workers, government workers
  3. Social workers
  4. those who contribute back to society in some way
  5. Meeting criteria of education and retraining programs

We don’t want to live in a world like Wall-E, where AI and robots are so advanced that humanity falls complacent, inactive

AI and robots will increase productivity. But humanity needs to continue running the race as well.

 

optimism

It’s easy to be a critic

It’s easy to be negative

When society sees someone going the road less traveled, or going a road that’s never been traveled, our instinct is to condemn the individual for being irrational

But realism and optimism are not polar opposites

In fact, a realistic optimist is the best type of person

They see an opportunity, and instead of simply dreaming about the potential, they actively take steps towards realizing that opportunity

But when someone is too optimistic, they are condemned, or criticized, or surrounded by negativity

Extreme optimism is powerful

But extreme optimism alone means you won’t get anything done. It’s okay to dream of being an NBA star one day. But if you aren’t practicing every day, taking care of your diet and health, and training your mindest as hard as you train your body, then it’s just irrational optimism.

Realistic optimism is unstoppable.

You train every day, you actively work towards your goals, and you are full of unbounded optimism and reach for your dreams.

Rational optimism is how you achieve goals.

Reach for the moon. Just be prepared to also build the rocket ship to get there.

going against the crowd

it’s hard

it’s really hard to go against the elephant in your head

elephants are huge

no one messes with them

and when they want something they’ll go for it

that is your mind

most of the time

but your rational self is sitting on top of the elephant

you can’t tame the elephant completely, but you can guide it with your reigns and nudge it in the right direction

in the long term, even a small nudge will take you in a completely different direction than just simply going straight

“Consider this. If you’re going somewhere and you’re off course by just one degree, after one foot, you’ll miss your target by 0.2 inches. Trivial, right? But what about as you get farther out?

  • After 100 yards, you’ll be off by 5.2 feet. Not huge, but noticeable.
  • After a mile, you’ll be off by 92.2 feet. One degree is starting to make a difference.
  • After traveling from San Francisco to L.A., you’ll be off by 6 miles.
  • If you were trying to get from San Francisco to Washington, D.C., you’d end up on the other side of Baltimore, 42.6 miles away.
  • Traveling around the globe from Washington, DC, you’d miss by 435 miles and end up in Boston.”

https://whitehatcrew.com/blog/a-mere-one-degree-difference/